![]() ![]() ![]() Just because it is easy for some to come up with the goods needed to take negotiate thru provinces, does not mean it isn't hard or will deplete someone else. There is no guarantee that you will win it if comes up again. Ok, so if the person only have 2hundred some lanterns left, he may not be able to get all 5 pieces. The forum is becoming less and less a place that is worth coming to. It almost seems like INNO has gotten a team of people now to come on and combat every negative comment about the event given. No one seems to be able to give a negative comment about the event. It seems like the forum has become hostile. Those calculations aren't far off, and you're slightly more likely to win the daily special with a stake of 600 lanterns if you buy only gold chests, but thing is that you'll pay a lot more on average to get the special than if you buy bronze chests. Previously I calculated the probability of getting the daily special if you start with 600 lanterns. There's an SP probability that you win the daily special from the first chest (that you spend additional lanterns on), so there's a P2 = 1 - (LP + SP) probability that you have to buy another chest. So the average cost for your first chest is actually C1 = CH - TREE - LP*(NL - C1) = (CH - TREE - LP*NL) / (1 - LP). There's an LP probability that you win NL lanterns, and if you do you can immediately spend CH of them on another chest, with NL-CH extra in hand, getting another tree, and so on. Consider: You spend CH for a chest, but you get TREE lanterns from a tree, so your cost is only CH - TREE. ![]() I have a new calculation that shows that bronze chests are far preferable if your only goal is to win the daily special. ![]()
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